Publications

Michael Meredith, Jess Melbourne-Thomas, Alberto Naveira Garabato, Marilyn N. Raphael (2025). Antarctica and the Earth System. Routledge.

P. Taylor, N. Feldl, G. de Boer, L. Hanh, A. Nguyen, M. N. Raphael, S. Sejas (2025). Polar Amplification of Climate Change Across Hemispheres and Seasons: A US CLIVAR Workshop Report.

DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock (2025). A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica's Sea Ice System: Data and Code Repository.

DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock (2025). A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica's Sea Ice System. Nature: Communications Earth & Environment.

DOI

K. R. Clem, M. N. Raphael (2024). Antarctica and the Southern Ocean [in “State of the Climate in 2023”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

DOI

Thomas J. Maierhofer, Marilyn N. Raphael, Ryan L. Fogt, Mark S. Handcock (2024). A Bayesian model for 20th century Antarctic sea ice extent reconstruction. Nature: Earth and Space Science.

DOI

T. J. O’Kane, A. A. Scaife, Y. Kushnir, A. Brookshaw, C. Buontempo, D. Carlin, R. K. Connell, F. Doblas-Reyes, N. Dunstone, K. Förster, A. Graça, A. J. Hobday, V. Kitsios, L. van der Laan, J. Lockwood, W. J. Merryfield, A. Paxian, M. R. Payne, M. C. Reader, G. R. Saville, D. Smith, B. Solaraju-Murali, N. Caltabiano, J. Carman, E. Hawkins, N. Keenlyside, A. Kumar, D. Matei, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. N. Raphael, M. Sparrow, B. Wu (2023). Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions. Frontiers in Climate.

DOI

K. R. Clem, M. N. Raphael (2023). Antarctica and the Southern Ocean [in “State of the Climate in 2022”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

DOI

Thomas J. Maierhofer, M. N. Raphael, M. Handcock (2023). 20th Century Antarctic sea ice extent anomaly reconstruction by sector (1.0) [Data set].

DOI

L. Newman, M. A. Hancock, E. Hofmann, M. J. M. Williams, S. F. Henley, et al., M. N. Raphael, et al. (2022). The Southern Ocean Observing System 2021–2025 Science and Implementation Plan.

DOI

K. R. Clem, M. N. Raphael (2022). Antarctica and the Southern Ocean [in “State of the Climate in 2021”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

DOI

Ryan L. Fogt, Amanda M. Sleinkofer, Marilyn N. Raphael, Mark S. Handcock (2022). A regime shift in seasonal total Antarctic sea ice extent in the twentieth century. Nature: Climate Change.

DOI

T. Lavergne, S. Kern, S. Aaboe, L. Derby, G. Dybkjær, G. Garric, P. Heil, S. Hendricks, J. Holfort, S. Howell, J. Key, J. L. Lieser, T. Maksym, W. Maslowski, W. Meier, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, B. Özsoy, B. Rabe, W. Rack, M. N. Raphael, P. de Rosnay, V. Smolyanitsky, S. Tietsche, J. Ukita, M. Vichi, P. Wagner, S. Willmes, X. Zhao (2022). A New Structure for the Sea Ice Essential Climate Variables of the Global Climate Observing System. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, Mark S. Handcock (2022). A new record sea ice minimum.. Nature: Reviews Earth and Environment.

DOI

X. Li, W. Cai, G. Meehl, D. Chen, X. Yuan, M. N. Raphael, D. Holland, Q. Ding, R. Fogt, B. Markle, G. Wang, D. Bromwich, J. Turner, S.-P. Xie, E. Steig, S. Gille, C. Xiao, B. Wu, M. Lazzara, X. Chen, S. Stammerjohn, P. Holland, M. Holland, X. Cheng, S. Price, Z. Wang, C. Bitz, J. Shi, E. Gerber, X. Liang, H. Goosse, C. Yoo, M. Ding, L. Geng, M. Xin, C. Li, T. Dou, C. Liu, W. Sun, X. Wang, C. Song (2021). Tropical teleconnection impacts on Antarctic climate changes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

DOI

Clare Eayrs, Xichen Li, Marilyn N. Raphael, David M. Holland (2021). Recent, rapid Antarctic sea-ice decline points to further change. Nature: Geoscience.

DOI

A. D. Fraser, R. A. Massom, M. S. Handcock, P. Reid, K. I. Ohshima, M. N. Raphael, J. Cartwright, A. R. Klekociuk, Z. Wang, R. Porter-Smith (2021). Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability. The Cryosphere.

DOI

M. N. Raphael, W. H. Hobbs, G. J. Marshall, S. E. Stammerjohn (2020). Recent climate trends. Past Antarctica: Paleoclimatology and Climate Change.

J. Liu, D. Bromwich, D. Chen, R. Cordero, T. Jung, M. N. Raphael, J. Turner, Q. Yang (2020). Preface to the Special Issue on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate: Past, Present and Future. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

M. S. Handcock, M. N. Raphael (2020). Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent. The Cryosphere.

DOI

S. A. Morley, D. Abele, D. K. A. Barnes, C. A. Cárdenas, C. Cotté, J. Gutt, S. F. Henley, J. Höfer, K. A. Hughes, S. M. Martin, C. Moffat, M. N. Raphael, S. E. Stammerjohn, C. C. Suckling, V. J. D. Tulloch, C. L. Waller, A. J. Constable (2020). Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System. Frontiers in Marine Science.

DOI

L. A. Roach, J. Dörr, C. R. Holmes, F. Massonnet, E. W. Blockley, D. Notz, T. Rackow, M. N. Raphael, S. O'Farrell, D. A. Bailey, C. M. Bitz (2020). Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

M. N. Raphael, M. S. Handcock, M. M. Holland, L. L. Landrum (2020). An assessment of the temporal variability in the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A comparison of the historical runs with observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.

DOI

Y. Kushnir, A. A. Scaife, R. Arritt, G. Balsamo, G. Boer, F. Doblas-Reyes, E. Hawkins, M. Kimoto, R. K. Kolli, A. Kumar, D. Matei, K. Matthes, W. A. Müller, T. O’Kane, J. Perlwitz, S. Power, M. N. Raphael, A. Shimpo, D. Smith, M. Tuma, B. Wu (2019). Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change.

DOI

M. C. Kennicutt, D. Bromwich, D. Liggett, B. Njåstad, L. Peck, S. R. Rintoul, C. Ritz, M. J. Siegert, A. Aitken, C. M. Brooks, J. Cassano, S. Chaturvedi, D. Chen, K. Dodds, N. R. Golledge, C. Le Bohec, M. Leppe, A. Murray, P. C. Nath, M. N. Raphael, M. Rogan-Finnemore, D. M. Schroeder, L. Talley, T. Travouillon, D. G. Vaughan, L. Wang, A. T. Weatherwax, H. Yang, S. L. Chown (2019). Sustained Antarctic Research: A 21st Century Imperative. One Earth.

DOI

T. J. Bracegirdle, F. Colleoni, N. J. Abram, N. A. N. Bertler, D. A. Dixon, M. England, V. Favier, C. J. Fogwill, J. C. Fyfe, I. Goodwin, H. Goosse, W. Hobbs, J. M. Jones, E. D. Keller, A. L. Khan, S. J. Phipps, M. N. Raphael, J. Russell, L. Sime, E. R. Thomas, M. R. van den Broeke, I. Wainer (2019). Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate. Geosciences.

DOI

M. M. Holland, L. Landrum, M. N. Raphael, R. Porter-Smith (2018). The Regional, Seasonal, and Lagged Influence of the Amundsen Sea Low on Antarctic Sea Ice. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

M. N. Raphael, M. M. Holland, L. Landrum, W. H. Hobbs (2018). Links Between the Amundsen Sea Low and Sea Ice in the Ross Sea: Seasonal and Interannual Relationships. Climate Dynamics.

DOI

E. Schlosser, F. A. Haumann, M. N. Raphael (2018). Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay. The Cryosphere.

DOI

L. L. Landrum, M. M. Holland, M. N. Raphael, L. M. Polvani (2017). Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in austral fall in the late twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

M. M. Holland, L. Landrum, M. N. Raphael, S. Stammerjohn (2017). Springtime Winds Drive Ross Sea Ice Variability and Change in the Following Autumn. Nature Communications.

M. N. Raphael, G. J. Marshall, J. Turner, R. L. Fogt, D. Schneider, D. A. Dixon, J. S. Hosking, J. M. Jones, W. R. Hobbs (2016). The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, Change and Impact on Antarctic Climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

E. Schlosser, B. Stenni, M. Valt, A. Cagnati, J. G. Powers, K. W. Manning, M. N. Raphael, M. G. Duda (2016). Precipitation and synoptic regime in two extreme years 2009 and 2010 at Dome C, Antarctica – implications for ice core interpretation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

DOI

J. M. Jones, S. T. Gille, H. Goosse, N. J. Abram, P. O. Canziani, D. J. Charman, K. R. Clem, X. Crosta, C. de Lavergne, I. Eisenman, M. H. England, R. L. Fogt, L. M. Frankcombe, G. J. Marshall, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. K. Morrison, A. J. Orsi, M. N. Raphael, J. A. Renwick, D. P. Schneider, G. R. Simpkins, E. J. Steig, B. Stenni, D. Swingedouw, T. R. Vance (2016). Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change.

DOI

S. Stammerjohn, T. Maksym, R. Massom, K. E. Lowry, K. R. Arrigo, X. Yuan, M. N. Raphael, E. Randall-Goodwin, R. M. Sherrell, P. Yager (2015). Seasonal sea ice changes in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979–2014. Elementa.

DOI

W. Hobbs, N. Bindoff, M. N. Raphael (2015). New Perspectives on Observed and Simulated Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Trends Using Optimal Fingerprinting Techniques. Journal of Climate.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2015). Essentials of the Earth’s Climate System. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research.

M. N. Raphael (2015). Antarctic Sea Ice: Variability, Trends, Drivers and 21st Century Projections. Sea Ice Challenges Workshop Report.

P. O. Canziani, A. O’Neill, R. Schofield, M. N. Raphael, G. J. Marshall, G. Redaelli (2014). World climate research programme special workshop on climatic effects of ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

DOI

M. N. Raphael, W. H. Hobbs (2014). The influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on Antarctic sea ice during ice advance and retreat seasons. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, others (2011). Future Science Opportunities in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. National Academy of Sciences.

W. H. Hobbs, M. N. Raphael (2010). The Pacific zonal asymmetry and its influence on Southern Hemisphere sea ice variability. Antarctic Science.

DOI

Juliane L. Fry, Hans-F. Graf, Richard Grotjahn, Marilyn N. Raphael, Clive Saunders, Richard Whitaker (2010). The Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate Change: A Complete Visual Guide. University of California Press.

M. N. Raphael, W. H. Hobbs, I. Wainer (2010). The effect of Antarctic sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere during the southern summer. Climate Dynamics.

DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, others (2010). Carbon Dioxide Stabilization Report. National Academy of Sciences.

W. R. Hobbs, M. N. Raphael (2009). Characterizing the Zonally Asymmetric Component of the Southern Hemisphere Circulation. Climate Dynamics.

DOI

J. Finley, M. N. Raphael (2007). The Relationship between El Niño and the Duration and Frequency of the Santa Ana Winds of Southern California. The Professional Geographer.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2007). The influence of atmospheric zonal wave three on Antarctic sea ice variability. Journal of Geophysical Research.

DOI

A. S. Taschetto, I. Wainer, M. N. Raphael (2007). Interannual variability associated with Semi-Annual Oscillation in southern high latitudes. Journal of Geophysical Research.

DOI

W. R. Hobbs, M. N. Raphael (2007). A representative time-series for the Southern Hemisphere zonal wave 1. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

M. Holland, M. N. Raphael (2006). Twentieth Century Simulation of the Southern Hemisphere Climate in Coupled Models. Part II: Sea Ice Conditions and Variability. Climate Dynamics.

DOI

M. N. Raphael, M. Holland (2006). Twentieth Century Simulation of the Southern Hemisphere Climate in Coupled Models. Part I: Large Scale Circulation Variability. Climate Dynamics.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2004). A zonal wave 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2003). The Santa Ana Winds of California. Earth Interactions.

M. N. Raphael (2003). Recent, Large-Scale Changes in the Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation. Journal of Climate.

M. N. Raphael (2003). Impact of observed sea-ice concentration on the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation in summer. Journal of Geophysical Research.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2003). A possible influence of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation on the variability of the extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research.

DOI

M. N. Raphael (2001). Response of the large-scale, Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation to extremes of Antarctic sea-ice concentration in a general circulation model. Polar Geography.

M. N. Raphael, S. Cherry (2000). Spatial analysis of the factors contributing to the relationship between the transient, meridional eddy sensible, and latent heat flux at 850 mb. Geographical Analysis.

R. F. Milliff, T. J. Hoar, H. van Loon, M. N. Raphael (1999). Quasi-stationary wave variability in NSCAT winds. Journal of Geophysical Research.

M. N. Raphael (1998). Quasi-stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere: An examination of their simulation by the NCAR Climate System Model, with and without an interactive ocean. Journal of Climate.

M. N. Raphael, R. F. Milliff, T. J. Hoar, H. van Loon (1998). Quasi-stationary wave variabilities at the surface and at 500 hPa from NSCAT, ERS and NCEP. Proceedings of the NASA Scatterometer Science Symposium.

M. N. Raphael, I. K. Cheung (1998). North Pacific mid-latitude cyclone characteristics during selected El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. Geophysical Research Letters.

M. N. Raphael (1997). The relationship between the transient meridional eddy sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research.

M. N. Raphael (1997). Quasi-stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere of a GCM with and without an interactive ocean.

M. N. Raphael (1997). Model simulation of quasi-stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere. Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography.

M. N. Raphael, G. M. Mills (1996). The role of extratropical Pacific cyclones in the precipitation climate of California. The Professional Geographer.

Marilyn N. Raphael (1996). The changing interannual variability of temperature, moisture and the meridional wind in the 2XC02 climate. Proceedings of the 26th Climate Diagnostics Workshop.

Samprit Chatterjee, Marilyn N. Raphael, Jeffrey S. Simonoff (1995). A Casebook for a First Course in Statistics and Data Analysis. Wiley, New York.

Code Dataset Project

M. N. Raphael (1995). Statistical analysis of the relationship between the transient eddy, meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere. Proceedings of the 6th International Meetings of Statistical Climatology.

M. N. Raphael (1995). Modeling the human impact on nature: Systems analysis of environmental problems. Professional Geographer.

M. N. Raphael, J. Feddema, A. J. Orme, A. R. Orme (1994). The unusual storms of February 1992 in Southern California. Physical Geography.

M. N. Raphael (1994). Comparisons between zonal and meridional eddy sensible heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Physical Geography.

M. N. Raphael, J. C. Rogers (1992). The Meridional Flux of Eddy Sensible Heat at 700 mb in Winter. Physical Geography.

J. C. Rogers, M. N. Raphael (1992). Meridional eddy sensible heat fluxes in the extremes of the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern. Journal of Climate.

G. Mills, M. N. Raphael, J. Feddema, M. Savage (1991). Monitoring for Sustainable Development: A Research Design for a Case Study of Santa Cruz Island. Proceedings of the American Statistical Association.